Incidentally this is one reason I favor giving private sector surveillance data to health authorities. Let people be surprised! One of many things wrong with contact tracing apps is that even if the technology works as intended, too many assumptions are baked into the design
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People in my replies claiming that lockdowns explain everything—they do not explain Japan. This is an elderly, crowded country that was very late to adopt significant measures (other than school closings), with community spread since at least early March. And yet not so bad. Why?
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Anyway, just know that if you're not persuaded by the many explanations for why this virus has affected the world so unevenly, you're not the only fool out there in a sea of experts. Come sit by me (but not too close).
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One reason people are reluctant to admit doubt is a kind of purity thinking that takes hold in these situations. Psychologically, we want a sense of control; that if we obey the rules, wash hands, keep our distance, etc, we won't get sick. That is a painful belief to question.
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And let me be clear that I'm not questioning these measures, or being all woo about what makes people sick. I just think there's some additional factor in the mix affecting where it spreads.
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By the way, this facet of the story (the X factor responsible for uneven spread, beyond just randomness) is potentially extremely good news for the world. If we can figure out what inhibits the contagion in some places, or disinhibits it in others, we will have a powerful weapon
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Dose-dependency may complicate even other heterogenous factors, leading to massive skew in outcomes. And because it’s a exponential process in complex non-linear systems, small initial conditions can drive big diffs. Like quantum fluctuations imprinted on microwave background.
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I understand that argument, but we're getting past the point where you can explain it by random seeding and fluctuations. It seems like the intensity of spread really is heterogeneous
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I was going to say the same thing. I was cut in line so many times in India because I left a person sized gap in front of me. Dudes would roll in assuming I wasn’t on line because my belt buckle wasn’t touching anyone.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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