This to me is the six million dollar question. There's no lack of answers—but the very abundance of answers makes me think we don't have a clue. Why NYC and not Boston or Philadelphia? Why Lombardy and not Stockholm? How does *Bangladesh* come to avoid a major natural disaster?https://twitter.com/danielmintz/status/1255811045140180993 …
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I think that we're seeing the natural chaos of exponential growth and variable network coupling that has previously been hidden under aggregate statistics because compiling data was harder.
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You don't think pre and post lockdown variations cover a lot of this?
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Isn’t a big big part of the issue that numbers entirely depend on spotty, varied reporting on cause of death and variations in testing, etc.?
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My dumb guess is the people speculating about initial viral load were right and distancing doesn't decrease the spread that much but does decrease the load a lot: ie. maybe we're all getting it from touching stuff at the grocery store now rather than from meetings\cubicles\planes
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Of course if the load is low enough that it doesn't cause symptoms one might assume it also might not trigger much immune response which might be stretching the definition of "getting it".
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If we were living in an Ian Fleming novel, Bond would discover that asymptomatic North Korean super-spreader agents had been sent to that football match between Italy/Spain teams, then NYC and California. Then the virus was on its own.
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>But that's not what happened at all. Why do you say that? Social distancing measures are a major factor in the slope, but not the only factor. The case count itself can affect the slope - if it's small, you can catch it and contain it; if it's large, containment is hard.
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I.e. places with few cases now had fewer initial infections, had initial infections later, had faster and better responses the initial infections, and had stronger and earlier and more effective social distancing. ... or so one could offer as an explanation. Proof would be hard.
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That’s kind of the nature of exponential systems, though. Tiny well-placed ripples can cause massive waves. It would be weirder if we *didn’t* see such massive variation.
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But basically...
There probably won’t be answers to those specific questions.
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