This to me is the six million dollar question. There's no lack of answers—but the very abundance of answers makes me think we don't have a clue. Why NYC and not Boston or Philadelphia? Why Lombardy and not Stockholm? How does *Bangladesh* come to avoid a major natural disaster?https://twitter.com/danielmintz/status/1255811045140180993 …
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Things made a lot more sense last month, when you could argue that everyone was on the same curve, and its slope would be determined by the speed and intensity of social distancing measures. But that's not what happened at all.
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things that spread through networks can have this dynamic, e.g. why was Orkut ~2005 huge in Iran and in Brazil?
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This explains why things started in some places and not others. But it doesn't (at least to me) adequately explain why the spread didn't happen elsewhere too, albeit later.
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I think it's less weird than people think. It followed the lines of where people move (which means disproportionately wealthy urban areas), then people stopped moving and the pattern froze. I don't think it needs *much* more explanation than that
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