I still haven't seen many people connect these dots, so maybe I'm missing something obvious? * 20 million newly unemployed people in the past month * parts of country will stay locked down, others will reopen * therefore, we can expect Dust Bowl-like massive population shifts
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For those who want a test of whether this economic crisis will lead to mass migrations, I recommend keeping an eye on Las Vegas. This is one of the first places I'd expect to see large movements of people out of, since it's a tourist-based economy in the middle of the desert
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I'm skeptical that there will be the kind of jobs elsewhere that justify these moves - moving from the Dustbowl to a booming California is one thing, moving from somewhere with 40% unemployment to somewhere with 20% is another.
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It doesn't need to be jobs, it can be any gradient of well-being (social benefits, hospitals that aren't overwhelmed, milder weather in winter, availability of seasonal work, movement from a no-relief state to a high-relief state, movement away from disease hot spots)
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people at the very very bottom are stuck. but lotta people on the lowest rungs have just enough resources to get the hell out of dodge.
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People on the lowest rungs are also enormously resourceful and resilient
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Interesting for these events to coincide with what had been a low point in mobility, either the dam breaks, or those forces mean people are super stuck.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/20/us/american-workers-moving-states-.html …
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States that "reopen" too early or have done a poor job of handling this pandemic and have job openings will be hit by a second wave of infections and deaths.
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Good thread. I was thinking it was easier for remote-friendly workers to move out, as they come with a built-in job. Not sure about those that moved to the cities in need of a job.
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Dust bowl has been the primary historical analogy in my head too. There's also more recent history to back this up if we look to outmigration from the coalfields in Appalachia. My anecdotal experience: ppl who lost jobs left, people with a little money got to stay put.
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Do you have reading recommendations, either for the dust bowl-era or more recently?
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