My favorite coronavirus counterfactuals right now: 1. What if Theranos had launched in 2008, not 2003 2. What if the US had gone to war with Iran in January 3. What if the infection fatality rate was ~10% (that is, we didn't get a "starter pandemic" but the real deal)
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Agreed. The case fatality rate is presently 9-13% in those countries. And, the IFR we don't know due to an absence of comprehensive testing.
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Seems the hard part about getting a 'genuine' IFR is that coronavirus overwhelms health systems, and you could reasonably have a range of IFRs depending on how overwhelmed health systems become and the availability of medical interventions.
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