My favorite coronavirus counterfactuals right now: 1. What if Theranos had launched in 2008, not 2003 2. What if the US had gone to war with Iran in January 3. What if the infection fatality rate was ~10% (that is, we didn't get a "starter pandemic" but the real deal)
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That is presently the amount of people tested versus the amount of deaths. We are simultaneously undertesting as well as undercounting deaths.
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But, its the best sh!tties information that we have at present. So until they start testing more widely and counting fatalities at home and elder care facilities that is what we got.
End of conversation
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