Super important thread about the math of antibody testing. False positives will overwhelm everything else as long as you are testing groups where infection is relatively rare. https://twitter.com/zbinney_nflinj/status/1245789672833417217 …
What part is not clear? If you work the examples he gives, you get the basic point. You need a high overall infected and recovered rate to be able to have high confidence in an individual test.
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The math is explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy … Sensitivity and specificity are explained here: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:UQltNTh6f8QJ:https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/04/01/an-antibody-test-for-the-novel-coronavirus-will-soon-be-available+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us …
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Thank you. I had looked up specificity and sensitivity but I had not heard of the base rate fallacy.
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