The imposition of large internal quarantines is going to encourage people to bug out at the first sign of things deteriorating in their city. Kids aren't in school; people are out of work. We could be facing large-scale internal migrations (and tensions) to rival the Dust Bowl
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Everything Trump is doing right now (threatening to quarantine a huge metro area, promising a list of least and worst-affected counties) seems calculated to make people get in their car and drive across half the country to perceived safety. Summer homes are already filling up
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Most people don't have a summer home, but they have a car, a credit card, and a burning desire not to be trapped with their family in a place where the hospital system is overwhelmed and death tolls are doubling every day
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Massive internal migration out of areas about to be quarantined is the surest way to spread the pandemic to every corner of the United States at once. And no amount of surveillance or tracking or testing could help here; that is only useful once things are contained much later.
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It's in our interest for the pandemic to hit different parts of the country at different times, because the same medical resources can be moved across regions, and things we learn in one place applied elsewhere. We need to avoid any policy that leads to large movements of people
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Moreover, the medical system is sized to population, and if you have 100,000 pandemic refugees arrive in (inventing example at random) Madison, WI out of Chicago because they hear there's more bed space there, things get worse for everybody, and if you live there, you are angry
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People should not put a lot of faith in the court system to fix this, either. We have a lot of history in this country about stopping migrations of white people, black people, and foreign migrants without much concern for legalities. That history is very relevant now!
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Use Pinboard to keep track of all the upcoming internal migrations!
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