Christopher J.L. Murray, a respected public health expert who has done a lot of data analysis, has projected the death toll for coronavirus in the US, and the need for hospital beds and intensive care units. Soon we'll see how accurate this is. (1/n)https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?sfns=mo …
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I think their estimates are probably ok as a lower-bound/best-case scenario. I started reading the paper but stopped when I realized they basically just fit the curves in each state and projected forwards.
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Right, that's very crude. I haven't looked into other models to see whether they too make dramatic oversimplifications - or downright wrong assumptions.
End of conversation
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