The right wingers have a point that we cannot suspend all activity indefinitely and run an economy entirely on relief checks and health care. So many people are talking about this like it's an acute problem, that requires a few months of sacrifice. It's not like that at all.
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Constant tracking of people and who is infected? Doesn't sound like a very nice prospect either.
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It isn't. But the alternatives are worse.
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Why couldn’t we resume our normal lives? Money is an abstraction. Treasury sent ARRA checks in 2009, and the Fed effectively printed money with QE. Why couldn’t we learn from our mistakes and do the same, but better. Oh Wall Street! Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.
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We couldn't resume our normal lives because the virus would start to spread again in the same uncontrolled way.
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The plan is this: ramp up testing ability. Limit travel. Test every sniffle. Localized epidemics will flare up. Lock those localities down and quarantine them. Aggressively trace contacts and isolate them. Over time, herd immunity will start to slow the replication rate.
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Right. This is extremely economically disruptive (even though much better than what we have now). It's one reason I'm calling for using location surveillance to help public health authorities do it less disruptively
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Ideally, shutdown until we have free tests. Once we have tests, allow controlled return-to-work based on extensive testing, both randomized and key individuals, like healthcare workers, until we have a vaccine. Vaccine everyone for free.
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The alternative if we don’t do a national shutdown for 2 weeks or social distancing for at least 3-4 weeks is epidemiologists suggest that we may have hundreds of thousands dead over the next year? (let’s look at the stats from China and Italy—predominantly elderly)
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Ubiquitous testing, contact tracing. Hard but possible ... once distancing has knocked down the case load.
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I don't think we're getting back to that being practical for a year.
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