By its own figures (leaked by the governor of Osaka prefecture), the ministry of health is expecting some 3300 cases the week of March 28 in just Osaka and Hyogo prefectures alone. Nothing adds up here.
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Replying to @Pinboard @Birdyword
If you posit somewhere between 10-20k cases in Japan right now, that would not show up as an overload of the hospital system yet, would it? We'll find out either way in the next two weeks
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Replying to @Birdyword
Japan has much more capacity per unit population, which in this case may turn out to be a curse, not a blessing
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Replying to @Birdyword @Pinboard
Guys, this is not a country where there's thousands on their death beds across the country and no one is writing about it because of the dread fist of Abe. This IS a country where the prime minister can't even shred some documents without it almost taking down his administration.
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No one has a good explanation for why Japan is such an outlier but the evidence points to a) early awareness of it due to closeness to China b) good early detection and handling of the cases that hit and c) possibly cultural differences that help reduce the spread.
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Replying to @GearoidReidy @Birdyword
You also have a prefectural governor leaking much more alarming internal numbers, and rumors among medical staff that things are bad in certain hot spots. I guess we'll know either way in about ten days' time
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Replying to @Pinboard @Birdyword
The numbers are a simple projection based on trends without them doing anything. No one in the national government is saying things are controlled or cases won't increase in Japan - they will. The question is how much. We'll know in 10 days but that's what we said two weeks ago.
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Are there any countries with stronger hygiene standards than Japan? It seems like closing the schools, rigid obedience towards self quarantine orders and obsessive germaphobic OCD might be help here.
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They're not rigidly obeying self-quarantine orders, and they're not acting particularly germaphobic. There's a lot of such "cultural" explanations going around that don't match behavior
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