Obviously, I am not a virustician and have nothing to say about the merits of the proposal on those grounds. But I can't envision a scenario where the country locks down, we successfully cap infections at some low number, everyone goes back to work, and then we do it all again
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The most likely outcome of a successful attempt to curtail the spread of this thing, in my eyes, is a rewriting of history to say it was all overblown hype intended to make the President look bad and spark a recession. This will completely politicize the public health issue
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In a country like America, where about a third of the population gets its news from a self-contained alternate reality space that is willing to rewrite the past on short notice, society-wide public interventions are almost impossible. We got this one because people are scared
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But if it succeeds, they will not be scared again, and we'll end up with the worst-case scenario delayed by three months. The challenge is to find a politically feasible way to run this gauntlet, in an atmosphere of nearly total polarization and paralyzing incompetence at the top
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Has this approach ever been tried?
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Some reading related to the Imperial College report, around the effects of more widespread testing:https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444821593944064 …
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Welcome to the people on twitter discussing epidemiology club! It’s almost like it’s a perfectly reasonable thing to discuss a crisis and contribute your thoughts to it. I hope you’ll consider no longer making fun of people for wanting to do so.
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(Also, I agree with your conclusions. The report is good but probably not taking into account human and political behavior.)
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