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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      The New York Times has managed to get their hands on the still-not-public CDC projections. One model estimates 160 to 214 million infected in the US, with 200,000 to 1.7 million dead. That’s middle range of the projections what I’m seeing. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html …pic.twitter.com/4wcFP92ghV

      74 replies 1,476 retweets 1,843 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      Today’s press conference felt like watching the waves recede on a crowded beach, with the tsunami warning blaring but with the resort management that wants to keep selling kitschy souvenirs playing loud music over it. It’s the worst I felt for the US in months of following this.

      13 replies 265 retweets 946 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      We could be on the lower or higher end of this—the one hopeful thing is how much decentralized action that’s happened just this week. It’s not enough but it’s something. The US has a lot of low density areas, lowish smoking rates, low pollution. These are the positives.

      2 replies 65 retweets 362 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      The negative is that we’re late. And we’re on our own. What an unnecessary tragedy.

      6 replies 82 retweets 421 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Cheri Rodriguez Jones

      This is an example of how differently we think. This is a model from two weeks ago assuming little mitigation, and that’s no comfort. Two more weeks passed since with some actions starting just the last few days. “It’s old” means worse for the projections.https://twitter.com/cheri_rod_jones/status/1238591014488748032 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Cheri Rodriguez Jones @cheri_rod_jones
      Replying to @idkdd_idk @zeynep
      I was scrolling through comments hoping that at least one person was going to show they read this. This is also based on an estimate from last month and doesn't account for what we're currently doing to limit the impact. THANK YOU.
      3 replies 33 retweets 172 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      Let me put it this way. Two weeks ago, CDC projected potentially 1 million dead Americans, and we still we don’t even have widespread testing. I don’t understand how this makes anyone feel better. The actions we’ve taken so far are good—but not what they were worth two weeks ago.

      6 replies 87 retweets 369 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      Epidemiology is trying to outrun the wave. Every late day means you have to run even faster—much faster. Don’t self-soothe folks. We can still influence things, and we already are but people have to look realistically at the scenarios. Bending this curve requires so so much more.

      1 reply 77 retweets 278 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted  ❌Lemzia  ⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️

      The worst case scenario is exactly what we need to hear. We have started very late and done fairly little so far. Just started. This isn’t the stuff you count on random luck for.https://twitter.com/lemzia/status/1238600454507859968 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

       ❌Lemzia  ⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️ @lemzia
      Replying to @zeynep @whpresscorps
      That is most likely a "Worst case scenario" and SHOULD NOT be made Public! Your tweet is IRRESPONSIBLE and will only serve to CAUSE PANIC!!! SMFH.
      8 replies 38 retweets 283 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      Folks, look at Hubei, ~50 million. They had ~3000 deaths *after* putting everyone practically under house arrest and building new hospitals when they were about 40-100 deaths in. Just that ratio translates to about 20K deaths in the US. We barely closed schools just this week.

      9 replies 63 retweets 225 likes
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    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      If we engaged in drastic action now and, hopefully, got lucky—sustained immunity after infection, seasonal denouement, quick response from existing antivirals—we'll still looking at a big event. Please, please don't relax simply because there's finally been some action this week.

      8 replies 55 retweets 214 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      But I like to relax

      5:41 PM - 13 Mar 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • bill nichols Oomph
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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