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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @migueldeicaza @matthew_d_green

      I'm helping my mom, who is in the highest risk category, get home from Japan right now, so I'm pretty alive to the dangers. But I think a lot of computer people in particular are being publicly dramatic in a way that does not reflect well on our understanding of the world.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    2. Miguel “enterprise metaverse” de Icaza‏ @migueldeicaza 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green

      The summarized report from the WHO is quite good, based on the response in China, I think this can be trusted: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @migueldeicaza @matthew_d_green

      I lack the expertise to make this evaluation. I will feel very much more secure if the data is corroborated by the experience in South Korea

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

      Are we asking the same question over and over again? Because we now have enough statistical evidence (including the Diamond Princess, where testing was ubiquitous) to conclude that it has a critical case rate of between 5-10%.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

      Why do people keep rejecting this finding and saying “well maybe we just have to wait a month until cases mature in [new experiment X]” to see if maybe the disease now affects human beings differently?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @migueldeicaza

      Because a cruise ship is a pretty specific kind of environment. Remember the notorious norovirus oubreaks? Anyway I would remind all of us that we are computer nerds far out of our domain of expertise or understanding, and need to have more chill, even if we read a lot of papers

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

      Wait. What does the cruise ship environment have to do with the critical case ratio? I agree it’s probably more infectious there, but why would that send more people to the ICU?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

      Right now the actual experts are saying “it’s pretty severe and if infections happen all at once it will overwhelm hospitals as it has in Wuhan and Iran.” The only people disagreeing on this are non-experts, people in Twitter, and Trump.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    9. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @migueldeicaza

      I think everyone agrees with this statement, but it also includes a degree of uncertainty that is not always reflected in the discussion on this fine website

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

      I’m seriously asking where the uncertainty is. What are we hoping to learn from South Korea in three weeks that will dictate how concerned we act here in the US?

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 5 Mar 2020
      Replying to @matthew_d_green @migueldeicaza

      How many people get seriously sick and die, how many people get sick and don't have symptoms, or very light symptoms, what groups are especially at risk

      6:42 AM - 5 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Matthew Green‏Verified account @matthew_d_green 5 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

          We know the answers to these questions now. The problem is, each time we reject those answers and ask for a repeat of the experiment, it takes a month — because cases take that long to resolve. If we base real actions on this data, that’s 4-6 epidemic doublings.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Zellyn Hunter  💉²  🎉‏ @zellyn 5 Mar 2020
          Replying to @matthew_d_green @Pinboard @migueldeicaza

          Zellyn Hunter  💉²  🎉 Retweeted Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

          This was interesting: evidence that Hong Kong is doing well because they're taking extreme measures already:https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1235039957133045760 …

          Zellyn Hunter  💉²  🎉 added,

          Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬 @lymanstoneky
          Diagnoses of EVERY infectious disease in Hong Kong have PLUMMETED in recent weeks, suggesting the low number of COVID cases is indeed due to aggressive hygiene measures NOT underreporting of COVID. https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1234671286606950407 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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