Seemed pretty severe in Wuhan.
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Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green
They did take fairly drastic measures to stop it. Here we are carrying on like the dog sitter forgot the treats.
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Replying to @migueldeicaza @matthew_d_green
I don't trust anything coming out of China about this epidemic.
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Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green
I went prepper mode weeks ago, so probably not the nuanced and calm person you were expecting to engage on this :-)
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Replying to @migueldeicaza @matthew_d_green
I'm helping my mom, who is in the highest risk category, get home from Japan right now, so I'm pretty alive to the dangers. But I think a lot of computer people in particular are being publicly dramatic in a way that does not reflect well on our understanding of the world.
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Replying to @Pinboard @matthew_d_green
The summarized report from the WHO is quite good, based on the response in China, I think this can be trusted: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/ …
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Replying to @migueldeicaza @matthew_d_green
I lack the expertise to make this evaluation. I will feel very much more secure if the data is corroborated by the experience in South Korea
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Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza
Are we asking the same question over and over again? Because we now have enough statistical evidence (including the Diamond Princess, where testing was ubiquitous) to conclude that it has a critical case rate of between 5-10%.
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Why do people keep rejecting this finding and saying “well maybe we just have to wait a month until cases mature in [new experiment X]” to see if maybe the disease now affects human beings differently?
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Because a cruise ship is a pretty specific kind of environment. Remember the notorious norovirus oubreaks? Anyway I would remind all of us that we are computer nerds far out of our domain of expertise or understanding, and need to have more chill, even if we read a lot of papers
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Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza
Wait. What does the cruise ship environment have to do with the critical case ratio? I agree it’s probably more infectious there, but why would that send more people to the ICU?
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Right now the actual experts are saying “it’s pretty severe and if infections happen all at once it will overwhelm hospitals as it has in Wuhan and Iran.” The only people disagreeing on this are non-experts, people in Twitter, and Trump.
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