I really would not trust the Chinese data here
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This may be likely
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We know from 'Diamond Princess' that at least half of the people infected will not show symptoms. We also know from first-hand accounts that the Chinese are not testing everybody with symptoms for COVID-19. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-back-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus …
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USG estimates are ~10x reported officially. Wuhan curve flattened because of lockdown + fractional herd immunity (15-30% infected).
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