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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Feb 2020

      Pinboard Retweeted Los Angeles Times

      My plea to Bernie is to demonstrate this promised turnout from new and infrequent voters on Tuesday, so that this is not a faith-based campaign requiring us to believe without proof it can happen in Novemberhttps://twitter.com/latimes/status/1233047515374608384 …

      Pinboard added,

      Los Angeles TimesVerified account @latimes
      Bernie Sanders has made young people central to his path to victory, arguing that only a candidate that inspires turnout from new and infrequent voters can win the White House https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-02-27/bernie-sanders-young-voters-2020 … pic.twitter.com/9mZUZl80ED
      Show this thread
      7 replies 9 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Sam Tobin-Hochstadt‏ @samth 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Is there any evidence that primary and general election turnout is correlated in this way?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @samth

      To my knowledge, we've never had a candidate who turns out unprecedented numbers of young people and non-voters specifically, so we have no evidence. I welcome correction from numbers nerds on this.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Sam Tobin-Hochstadt‏ @samth 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Both Obama and Trump inspired certain segments of the nonvoting population to turn out in greater numbers, so we could look there. But also, if 50% more people voted in the NH primary, that would very likely include only a few people who didn't vote in the 2016 general election.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Sam Tobin-Hochstadt‏ @samth 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @samth @Pinboard

      I think this is a place where you have to look at survey data, not different kinds of elections. There was a recent article in vox by some political scientists saying that large numbers of left wing young people say they will turn out but only for Sanders.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @samth

      Yeah. The problem is that young people always promise to turn out in numbers, and are always the lowest-turnout demographic.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Three macros in a trench-coat  💉 💉 🎉‏ @mvsamuel 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @samth

      True, but '18 shows they can be moved. "Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump." http://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html … Seems wise to speak of debt traps.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Feb 2020
      Replying to @mvsamuel @samth

      Yeah, that's part of it. A flip side of it, though, is that it was still only half the rate that retired people vote at. That's the frustrating nut to crack.

      12:33 PM - 27 Feb 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sam Tobin-Hochstadt‏ @samth 27 Feb 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @mvsamuel

          Only marginal gains are needed to get marginal wins, though.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 27 Feb 2020
          Replying to @samth @mvsamuel

          You're preaching to the choir on that. If Bernie said that was his plan for victory, I'd be in the front row of the comrades cheering.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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