I am neutral on Bernie (I realize this is a scandalous thing to say on Twitter), but I would be extremely reassured to see the record youth vote and non-voter vote materialize. This is in part psychological, since I promised and believed we would deliver this same vote in 2018
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The problem is that this voter turnout strategy is being treated as a test of faith by supporters. That includes saying things like "Bernie had record youth turnout, but it was balanced by dispirited centrists staying home". Questioning it is heresy. https://twitter.com/BlairReeves/status/1233124787934965772 …
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When Klobuchar says "I can win in any kind of district, red or blue" and then fails to do well in a primary, it's OK to be skeptical. Similarly, when Bernie turns out crowds 10x larger than any other candidate, says he will get them all to vote, and doesn't, it's OK to doubt!.
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What about last week?
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What about it?
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Bernie has a double-digit lead in the national polls. He is leading with millennials and Gen Z — the largest voting bloc in America. The real question is whether the party will stifle his movement or will it do everything it can to GOTV.pic.twitter.com/XhhRIPHYUD
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If Bernie doesn't get the majority of votes, we have to go with a candidate who got even fewer votes. If Bernie can't drive turnout to record levels, we have to go with a candidate who also isn't driving turnout and is getting fewer votes.
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The other candidates have a different theory of victory (like persuading swing voters). I'd be happy with Bernie if he had a different theory of victory, or if he demonstrated that his current theory works. Not happy with the fantasy elements of the campaign right now, however.
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Is there any evidence that primary and general election turnout is correlated in this way?
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To my knowledge, we've never had a candidate who turns out unprecedented numbers of young people and non-voters specifically, so we have no evidence. I welcome correction from numbers nerds on this.
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