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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 24 Feb 2020

      Like not to criticize these people in particular, it was just, constant.pic.twitter.com/5RgpWplcwg

      2 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @xenocryptsite

      i don't really understand your argument here; clinton would have easily won with a 28 point lead in the philly suburbs; the polls were obviously wrong but i'm not sure that meant the analysis was

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    3. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn

      The focus on one region, is what I mean.

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    4. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @xenocryptsite @Nate_Cohn

      Xenocrypt Retweeted Xenocrypt

      See, uh, us:https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite/status/777539046818062336?s=19 …

      Xenocrypt added,

      Xenocrypt @xenocryptsite
      Philadelphia+Suburbs voted for Obama by 30 points in 2012, he won the state by ~5. Clinton +9 poll from elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/EQMxRbRejq
      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @xenocryptsite

      oh, that's a different issue. if people conflated phi+suburbs with suburbs, that's obviously wholly different. but if clinton had won the philly suburbs by 28, the focus on the region would have been entirely appropriate!

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn

      Ok that was one of three Tweets I screenshot to make a more general point.

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @xenocryptsite

      Nate Cohn Retweeted Joe Weisenthal

      I know, but it is worth noting that people perceived (in some cases in error, as you show) apocalyptic numbers for the Trump that merited that kind of focus (here's one without such an error)https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/786500603438563328?s=20 …

      Nate Cohn added,

      Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
      New Bloomberg poll has Clinton up by 9 in Philadelphia. Clobbering him in the suburbs http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-13/pennsylvania-poll … via @McCormickJohn pic.twitter.com/lpUSRGXEkP
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn @xenocryptsite

      Like, if the polls had been *right,* and they showed Trump narrowly leading PA with huge gains in rural PA and so on, surely the pre-election analysis should have focused on that right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn

      I guess my thinking is, the focus on the suburbs wasn't solely from pure analysis of the polls, but also from a certain preconception about "the path to win in Pennsylvania".

      3 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
    10. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @xenocryptsite

      i do think there is something to that--a vague mid-2000s-era 'suburbs decide elections' sentiment that people assert regardless of whether the data in any particular poll or election seems to bare it out

      2 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn @xenocryptsite

      There is also a failure to distinguish between the various political flavors of suburbs and exurbs

      9:57 AM - 24 Feb 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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