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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020

      Discovered a new flavor of special pleading today, which is that Iowa caucus turnout was low because Biden's supporters stayed home, but Bernie had record turnout like he promised. This is why only predictions can test turnout theories—people are endlessly inventive ex post facto

      1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020

      I am not just picking on Bernie here; I want the candidates running on electability to win an election, and I want the candidate promising to mobilize the half of America who doesn't vote to mobilize the half of America who doesn't vote. I want to see the receipts!

      2 replies 2 retweets 28 likes
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    3. Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊‏ @Ingolf_He 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊 Retweeted

      Is it special pleading if people who generally *do* vote stayed home and the theory was that the candidate making the claim says that they will mobilize those who *don't* generally vote? A response of sorts: https://twitter.com/clairesandberg/status/1225902208232906752 …

      Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊 added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Ingolf_He

      Before the caucuses, Bernie was very clear: "if there is record turnout in the caucuses, we win, if turnout is low, we lose." His theory of victory has been that he will grow the ranks of Democratic voters, not replace them with first-time voters while keeping turnout low.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊‏ @Ingolf_He 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I understand that completely, but record turnout can also mean that we get 2008 (or greater) turnout for Biden and Sanders gets blown out. I think that ideally, you want both -- sell the existing base voters, *and* bring in new voters. Bernie seems to be targeting new voters.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊‏ @Ingolf_He 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Ingolf_He @Pinboard

      At least to get an edge in the primary, or to be "viable" in the eyes of the media and voters who wouldn't give more than a passing glance at him *unless* he can prove "electability".

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Ingolf_He

      My only point here is that we have to test these claims by making predictions about primary elections, because after the fact it's easy to find all kinds ways to rationalize the outcome.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊‏ @Ingolf_He 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I agree, but that requires a special reading of the goal to include turning out voters who will vote against you - this isn't a question of ballot access, but rather - where will you deploy your turnout resources of canvassers and calls -- to people who will vote against you?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊‏ @Ingolf_He 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Ingolf_He @Pinboard

      The polling clearly shows that Sanders *is* bringing new people into the political process, so to ignore that reality to knock down a non-goal *in a primary* is just deliberately misreading the situation, imo.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Ingolf_He

      I'm repeating what the guy himself said about Iowa turnout!

      4:04 PM - 7 Feb 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Emma Tweets Tech  🔥 🦊‏ @Ingolf_He 7 Feb 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          I think that he plainly said that was disappointed by that, so you agree with Bernie.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020
          Replying to @Ingolf_He

          I don't want to argue with you, since I think we kind of see eye to eye. We need *some* test somewhere of whether his theory of change works. I understand that it may require a buildup and not be immediately visible, but faith is not enough given how much is at stake

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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