Discovered a new flavor of special pleading today, which is that Iowa caucus turnout was low because Biden's supporters stayed home, but Bernie had record turnout like he promised. This is why only predictions can test turnout theories—people are endlessly inventive ex post facto
To believe in record turnout for Bernie, you'd have to believe in historically low levels of turnout for everyone else. I leave it to political scientists to tell us how we can test this empirically, but it sounds very fishy that the two should exactly offset one another.
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That is a far more interesting and fruitful point of discussion - does Bernie being on the ballot actually depress turnout somehow? Or (what I think is what Bernie is saying) does his movement require mass appeal after some tipping point, where the turnout expands dramatically?
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