Discovered a new flavor of special pleading today, which is that Iowa caucus turnout was low because Biden's supporters stayed home, but Bernie had record turnout like he promised. This is why only predictions can test turnout theories—people are endlessly inventive ex post facto
My only point here is that we have to test these claims by making predictions about primary elections, because after the fact it's easy to find all kinds ways to rationalize the outcome.
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I agree, but that requires a special reading of the goal to include turning out voters who will vote against you - this isn't a question of ballot access, but rather - where will you deploy your turnout resources of canvassers and calls -- to people who will vote against you?
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To believe in record turnout for Bernie, you'd have to believe in historically low levels of turnout for everyone else. I leave it to political scientists to tell us how we can test this empirically, but it sounds very fishy that the two should exactly offset one another.
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