Discovered a new flavor of special pleading today, which is that Iowa caucus turnout was low because Biden's supporters stayed home, but Bernie had record turnout like he promised. This is why only predictions can test turnout theories—people are endlessly inventive ex post facto
Before the caucuses, Bernie was very clear: "if there is record turnout in the caucuses, we win, if turnout is low, we lose." His theory of victory has been that he will grow the ranks of Democratic voters, not replace them with first-time voters while keeping turnout low.
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I understand that completely, but record turnout can also mean that we get 2008 (or greater) turnout for Biden and Sanders gets blown out. I think that ideally, you want both -- sell the existing base voters, *and* bring in new voters. Bernie seems to be targeting new voters.
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At least to get an edge in the primary, or to be "viable" in the eyes of the media and voters who wouldn't give more than a passing glance at him *unless* he can prove "electability".
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