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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      "You say us Democrats are perhaps overly focused on procedural fairness but in fact, the Democratic establishment uses coin tosses for the fractional delegate remainder, which on average will tend to deviate from proportionality compared to the null of nearest-integer-split."

      1 reply 2 retweets 18 likes
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    2. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      I mean do any Republicans or any of the right...ever even like, think this way? I think it's less common at least.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    3. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      Again my thinking here is influenced by how Republicans say things like "the Electoral College creates majorities", which you can only say if you're not bothering to think too hard about words or what they mean.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    4. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      Meanwhile I was like "hm does using coin tosses instead of nearest integer have any consistent effect, I suppose it depends on the distribution of both candidate support and precinct delegate assignment", so...that's where I'm at...

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      Maybe I'll run some models, and take suggestions about the choice of prior for delegate allocation and candidate support, what, with some hyperparameters for precinct-level variance? That'll show everyone I don't overthink things.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    6. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      "Of course you'll get that result if you assume precinct size is drawn from a POISSON distribution and not a NORMAL distribution but in practice, empirically..." Meanwhile GOP is like "eh, sounds right".pic.twitter.com/loUCSm1Z4H

      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
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    7. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      See at first I thought coin tosses will necessarily flatten the difference between the top two but not necessarily, for example, if it's 53-47 in a 10-delegate precinct, then nearest-integer-split gives 5-5, but a coin toss gives the potential for 6-4, biasing towards the leader.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    8. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      But it's probably like...a small and random effect, lol, when spread over 1700 precincts. And in fact arguably fairer...52-48 with three delegates at stake, nearest-integer-split is always 2-1, but coin toss will be 50-50 on average.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    9. Xenocrypt‏ @xenocryptsite 7 Feb 2020

      I do not absolve myself of the sin of process focus lol.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @xenocryptsite

      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/gamblers-take-note-the-odds-in-a-coin-flip-arent-quite-5050-145465423/ …

      9:04 AM - 7 Feb 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 3 Likes
      • Lavalux 😇 Eli Courtwright Lone Volts Ahead Xenocrypt
      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        1. Gus‏ @busgus 7 Feb 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @xenocryptsite

          'Extrapolations based on the model suggest that the probability of an American nickel landing on edge is approximately 1 in 6000 tosses.' HT https://web.archive.org/web/20200202224053/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_flipping#cite_note-3 …https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.48.2547 …

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