"You say us Democrats are perhaps overly focused on procedural fairness but in fact, the Democratic establishment uses coin tosses for the fractional delegate remainder, which on average will tend to deviate from proportionality compared to the null of nearest-integer-split."
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I mean do any Republicans or any of the right...ever even like, think this way? I think it's less common at least.
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Again my thinking here is influenced by how Republicans say things like "the Electoral College creates majorities", which you can only say if you're not bothering to think too hard about words or what they mean.
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Meanwhile I was like "hm does using coin tosses instead of nearest integer have any consistent effect, I suppose it depends on the distribution of both candidate support and precinct delegate assignment", so...that's where I'm at...
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Maybe I'll run some models, and take suggestions about the choice of prior for delegate allocation and candidate support, what, with some hyperparameters for precinct-level variance? That'll show everyone I don't overthink things.
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"Of course you'll get that result if you assume precinct size is drawn from a POISSON distribution and not a NORMAL distribution but in practice, empirically..." Meanwhile GOP is like "eh, sounds right".pic.twitter.com/loUCSm1Z4H
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See at first I thought coin tosses will necessarily flatten the difference between the top two but not necessarily, for example, if it's 53-47 in a 10-delegate precinct, then nearest-integer-split gives 5-5, but a coin toss gives the potential for 6-4, biasing towards the leader.
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But it's probably like...a small and random effect, lol, when spread over 1700 precincts. And in fact arguably fairer...52-48 with three delegates at stake, nearest-integer-split is always 2-1, but coin toss will be 50-50 on average.
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I do not absolve myself of the sin of process focus lol.
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Replying to @Pinboard @xenocryptsite
'Extrapolations based on the model suggest that the probability of an American nickel landing on edge is approximately 1 in 6000 tosses.' HT https://web.archive.org/web/20200202224053/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_flipping#cite_note-3 …https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.48.2547 …
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