The “we need a lukewarm candidate to appeal to the Fox News audience” is an bad take. The next election won’t be won by convincing Trump supporters to vote Democrat. The next election will be won by our turnout.
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Replying to @migueldeicaza
This is not borne out by evidence. The next election will be won by a combination of persuading Trump voters and turning out Democratic voters. And the median persuadable voter will be to the right of the Democratic party, because of structural asymmetry in the electoral college.
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Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza
I mean, I think the next election will be lost, but if it were won it would have to be on a mix of turnout and persuasion, just like the 2018 midterms and every other modern American election
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Replying to @Pinboard @migueldeicaza
I am convinced we have tapped out the limits of how far the persuasion can get us. His approval rating has been flat for two years, the only way we break this floor is a recession, not something persuasion can affect.pic.twitter.com/7jhH4sNsTD
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Turnout, on the other hand, shows plenty of room for growth.pic.twitter.com/ID1It8XLqk
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Turnout always shows room for growth, as half the country doesn't vote. We re-litigate this argument every two years, but this is not an ideological question. There is actual data. You'll find good links to it from this article:https://www.vox.com/2019/9/11/20856802/swing-voters-base-democrats-trump-2020-election …
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