(3/x) That's a world where the attitudes/values/consumer demands/voting patterns of current young adults are equal to those of the entire 65+ population, but also potentially a forerunner of trends that might sweep through the entire half of the population their age or younger.
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(4/x) In other words: cue the specials on Woodstock and disco balls.
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(5/x) Now, let’s look into the future. This is Japan today (2020). It’s also where countries across Asia and Europe are heading. % of population 0-24 21.7% 18-23 5.6% 65+ 28.4% 80+ 9.0%
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(6/x) That’s a very, very, very different world. That’s one where the attitudes/values/consumer demands of people *over 80 years old* are already almost TWICE as influential as those of all current college-aged students.
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(7/x) Moreover, that's also a world where interests/values of elderly, not youth, likely offer better forerunner of upcoming values & voting patterns of population as it ages - because proportion of 65+ & 80+ just keeps rising in decades to come, while that of youth shrinks.
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(8/x) Of course, both China & US are further behind in the aging process than Japan (and rest of Asia). But all of those trends are steadily playing in both countries as well. In USA, proportion of population aged 80+ will exceed that of 18-23 year olds by late 2030s.
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Replying to @CarlMinzner
I don't think you can coherently believe in a world of rapid climate change and one where there is a huge 80+ population.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Isn’t it *easier* to imagine? Addressing long-term problems like climate change incurs costs + lifestyle changes. More disincentives to doing so for those who a) won’t personally live through worst effects & b) have major investments (property ownership) based on existing rules.
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Replying to @CarlMinzner
I'm arguing that the effects of climate change will be so severe that we will see a general drop in life expectancy
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Replying to @Pinboard @CarlMinzner
There is absolutely no science-based forecast for climate change that yields large scale population die off in this century.
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Of course there is, such as large scale refugee migrations leading to war. These possibilities are impossible to forecast but completely plausible.
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