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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (1/x) A common theme of media reports (both on US & China) is that “youth are wave of the future”/”Generation Z (or 90后) reflect trends to come” Below, I'll lay out the problems with that narrative, given a crucial trend: the steady demographic marginalization of youth.

      2 replies 30 retweets 67 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (2/x) First, let’s look back. Per UN stats, this is the United States (1970) % of population aged: 0-24 45.4% 18-23 10.1% 65+ 10.1% 80+ 1.8%

      1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
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    3. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (3/x) That's a world where the attitudes/values/consumer demands/voting patterns of current young adults are equal to those of the entire 65+ population, but also potentially a forerunner of trends that might sweep through the entire half of the population their age or younger.

      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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    4. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (4/x) In other words: cue the specials on Woodstock and disco balls.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (5/x) Now, let’s look into the future. This is Japan today (2020). It’s also where countries across Asia and Europe are heading. % of population 0-24 21.7% 18-23 5.6% 65+ 28.4% 80+ 9.0%

      1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
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    6. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (6/x) That’s a very, very, very different world. That’s one where the attitudes/values/consumer demands of people *over 80 years old* are already almost TWICE as influential as those of all current college-aged students.

      3 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
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    7. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (7/x) Moreover, that's also a world where interests/values of elderly, not youth, likely offer better forerunner of upcoming values & voting patterns of population as it ages - because proportion of 65+ & 80+ just keeps rising in decades to come, while that of youth shrinks.

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    8. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 22 Dec 2019

      (8/x) Of course, both China & US are further behind in the aging process than Japan (and rest of Asia). But all of those trends are steadily playing in both countries as well. In USA, proportion of population aged 80+ will exceed that of 18-23 year olds by late 2030s.

      4 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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    9. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 22 Dec 2019
      Replying to @CarlMinzner

      I don't think you can coherently believe in a world of rapid climate change and one where there is a huge 80+ population.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Carl Minzner‏Verified account @CarlMinzner 23 Dec 2019
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Isn’t it *easier* to imagine? Addressing long-term problems like climate change incurs costs + lifestyle changes. More disincentives to doing so for those who a) won’t personally live through worst effects & b) have major investments (property ownership) based on existing rules.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 Dec 2019
      Replying to @CarlMinzner

      I'm arguing that the effects of climate change will be so severe that we will see a general drop in life expectancy

      2:41 AM - 23 Dec 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 23 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @CarlMinzner

          There is absolutely no science-based forecast for climate change that yields large scale population die off in this century.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 23 Dec 2019
          Replying to @lymanstoneky @CarlMinzner

          Of course there is, such as large scale refugee migrations leading to war. These possibilities are impossible to forecast but completely plausible.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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