(1/x) A common theme of media reports (both on US & China) is that “youth are wave of the future”/”Generation Z (or 90后) reflect trends to come” Below, I'll lay out the problems with that narrative, given a crucial trend: the steady demographic marginalization of youth.
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(2/x) First, let’s look back. Per UN stats, this is the United States (1970) % of population aged: 0-24 45.4% 18-23 10.1% 65+ 10.1% 80+ 1.8%
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(3/x) That's a world where the attitudes/values/consumer demands/voting patterns of current young adults are equal to those of the entire 65+ population, but also potentially a forerunner of trends that might sweep through the entire half of the population their age or younger.
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(4/x) In other words: cue the specials on Woodstock and disco balls.
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(5/x) Now, let’s look into the future. This is Japan today (2020). It’s also where countries across Asia and Europe are heading. % of population 0-24 21.7% 18-23 5.6% 65+ 28.4% 80+ 9.0%
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(6/x) That’s a very, very, very different world. That’s one where the attitudes/values/consumer demands of people *over 80 years old* are already almost TWICE as influential as those of all current college-aged students.
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(7/x) Moreover, that's also a world where interests/values of elderly, not youth, likely offer better forerunner of upcoming values & voting patterns of population as it ages - because proportion of 65+ & 80+ just keeps rising in decades to come, while that of youth shrinks.
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(8/x) Of course, both China & US are further behind in the aging process than Japan (and rest of Asia). But all of those trends are steadily playing in both countries as well. In USA, proportion of population aged 80+ will exceed that of 18-23 year olds by late 2030s.
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Replying to @CarlMinzner
I don't think you can coherently believe in a world of rapid climate change and one where there is a huge 80+ population.
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Replying to @Pinboard @CarlMinzner
behind walls in the developed world? I can absolutely believe that.
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Let's wait and see who was right!
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