There will be a big, authorized march tomorrow in Hong Kong, the first of its kind since July. The head of the Hong Kong police spent today in Bejiing getting instructions from the Ministry of Public Security, and no one is really sure what will happen.
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The two key questions: will there be substantial turnout? The last CHRF rally on August 18 had over a million people show up in torrential rain. And will the police allow such a peaceful protest to go through, or are they looking to sabotage it?
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It's evident that the HKPF takes orders directly from Beijing, but we also learned at the district council elections that Beijing has very little understanding of the real state of affairs in Hong Kong. They seem to believe their own propaganda. That makes them unpredictable
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All I want to say is mad respect to Jimmy Sham, the convener of Civil Human Rights Front. He's assuming legal liability for the march tomorrow, and despite being viciously beaten on October 16 (the second attack on him in two months), went on to win an elected seat. A brave guy!
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(When I ask whether the police are looking to sabotage this protest, all I have in mind is whether they will treat people spilling off of the designated marching route as a riotous act, and respond by revoking the permit. That's a very easy way to shut a march of this size down)
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Replying to @Pinboard
they already pretty much veiled-threatened this, no?
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Replying to @mono_toy
Yes; the question is whether they are capable of acting in good faith, and working with the marshals to keep people on the route, or if they are operating in bad faith and intend to curtail the protest no matter what anyone does.
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I have zero idea of what is going on, to be honest! I wouldn't bet either way
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Replying to @Pinboard
looking at the past 6 months, a good faith attempt at policing would be a fairly novel, even radical tactic
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