Since Walesa is in the news over wanting to help Hong Kong, another cool parallel with Poland is the carefully negotiated elections in 1989, which accelerated the collapse of the government even though they were designed with a built-in majority for the communistshttps://twitter.com/suilee/status/1199159569244536832 …
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The elections were for a newly-created Senate, where every seat was contested, and for the lower house of parliament (the Sejm), where 299 seats were guaranteed to the communist party, and 161 were open for a genuine election. Walesa's coalition won all 161, and 99 senate seats
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What was remarkable about this election is that EVERYONE except the ruling party knew this would be the outcome. The first chance for a semi-free vote since WWII would be a total repudiation of the illegitimate government. But the government was genuinely shocked!
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They did not expect to win, of course, but they expected a less unequivocal result. Very soon after this election, events accelerated and it became untenable for the communists to stay in power. All their careful negotiations to preserve their rule collapsed around them.
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Again, you can't over-analogize with Hong Kong. Poland and the rest of the eastern bloc escaped communism in large part because Gorbachev indicated that he would not intervene militarily. And even Gorbachev used military force when a "part of the USSR" (the Baltics) seceded
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But the lesson is, elections are extremely powerful expressions of popular will, and authoritarians who try to game them without recent experience of managing or manipulating fair elections tend to get badly burned.
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I'd love to hear other examples of authoritarian systems holding a genuinely free election and getting smoked because they misgauged their popularity
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Replying to @Pinboard
never heard of any authoritarian system holding a free election, that doesn't sound possible.
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I just gave two examples in this thread
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Replying to @Pinboard
shit, sorry, I saw the tweet I responded to in isolation and didn't read the thread.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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