This thread is scary, because a cynical Chinese leader mischaracterizing the Hong Kong conflict while getting full private briefings about what is actually going on is much less of a threat than a true believer being told what he wants to hear until publicly humiliated by eventshttps://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1198814005126676481 …
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I accidentally glanced the Facebook timeline of one "deep blue" Hongkonger... holy shit them are cray-cray. No wonder
@DanGarrett97 calls that lot of Pro-Beijing as "#XiAnon" (hope I got that right)... - Show replies
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What you suggest sounds very, errrm... Russian
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authoritarian social orders tend to select for political stability, not actual efficacy, which leads to crappy information being filtered up see this study for e.g.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282524071_'Death_Solves_All_Problems'_The_Authoritarian_Model_of_Counterinsurgency …
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I would hesitate to ascribe this to incompetence. MSS and others are highly competent in many areas. I think you're possibly overlooking what could just be plain old ideological decision making at higher levels or a simple intel miss on how many HKers are unhappy with gov.
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I'm not ascribing it to incompetence! I think the low-level intelligence is good, and there are plenty of mid-level people who would love to run a sophisticated operation like this. It's the failure in information flow upwards that fascinates me
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Actually I think they did intervene trying to split the protest support and failed miserably. Failed to recognise how thoroughly the policing has radicalised HK.
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