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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Nov 2019

      Pinboard Retweeted James Palmer

      This thread is scary, because a cynical Chinese leader mischaracterizing the Hong Kong conflict while getting full private briefings about what is actually going on is much less of a threat than a true believer being told what he wants to hear until publicly humiliated by eventshttps://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1198814005126676481 …

      Pinboard added,

      James Palmer @BeijingPalmer
      so according to state media contacts, Beijing genuinely thought they were going to win big in the elections today, to the point of having pre-written the stories
      Show this thread
      3 replies 72 retweets 163 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Nov 2019

      I've said this before, but there's a dynamic where China combines the worst of two worlds—a very real technological surveillance state, plus a leadership team that is being fed back its own propaganda. This decoupling from reality makes it hard to do GAME THEORY

      2 replies 20 retweets 114 likes
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    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Nov 2019

      An underreported aspect of this too is how the big scary technologies China is using for oppression—like mass facial recognition and AI—don't work that well. Their widespread deployment adds further abitrariness and terror to people's lives. It's phrenology with labor camps.

      2 replies 57 retweets 136 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Nov 2019

      Anyway, you don't need AI or a global surveillance network to understand what Hong Kongers want. You don't even need to speak Chinese, they helpfully chant in English from time to time. The fact that this information isn't privately getting through to Beijing is very significant

      3 replies 16 retweets 89 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Nov 2019

      There's an alternate universe where China could have used its incredible capacity to infiltrate and observe the protests, made skillful use of Cantonese-speaking agents to channel decisions and conversations on LiHKG, subverted Telegram groups etc. But we're in the derp timeline.

      8:30 PM - 24 Nov 2019
      • 17 Retweets
      • 75 Likes
      • Eli Courtwright camp002 rvng UcKema - Hudson valley Tree of Grove K. Muse ♆ James Pitt Eharding火 Victor Vaporubens™
      6 replies 17 retweets 75 likes
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        2. Loser Leaves‏ @loserleaves 24 Nov 2019
          Replying to @FelixHythlo @Pinboard

          I accidentally glanced the Facebook timeline of one "deep blue" Hongkonger... holy shit them are cray-cray. No wonder @DanGarrett97 calls that lot of Pro-Beijing as "#XiAnon" (hope I got that right)...

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        1. Loser Leaves‏ @loserleaves 24 Nov 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard

          What you suggest sounds very, errrm... Russian

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. mutual‏ @mutual_ayyde 24 Nov 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard

          authoritarian social orders tend to select for political stability, not actual efficacy, which leads to crappy information being filtered up see this study for e.g.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282524071_'Death_Solves_All_Problems'_The_Authoritarian_Model_of_Counterinsurgency …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Jean Valjean‏ @synthgrizzly 24 Nov 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard

          I would hesitate to ascribe this to incompetence. MSS and others are highly competent in many areas. I think you're possibly overlooking what could just be plain old ideological decision making at higher levels or a simple intel miss on how many HKers are unhappy with gov.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 24 Nov 2019
          Replying to @synthgrizzly

          I'm not ascribing it to incompetence! I think the low-level intelligence is good, and there are plenty of mid-level people who would love to run a sophisticated operation like this. It's the failure in information flow upwards that fascinates me

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. daaitoulaam‏ @daaitoulaam 25 Nov 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Actually I think they did intervene trying to split the protest support and failed miserably. Failed to recognise how thoroughly the policing has radicalised HK.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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