For Hong Kong friends curious about the fate of the Hong Kong democracy act, here are the next steps: 1. The two versions have to be combined and passed again by both houses (this should be faster) 2. Trump then has 10 days to sign or veto 3. A veto can be overturned by 2/3 vote
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Practically speaking, whether Trump signs the bill will depend on some combination of what he saw on Fox and Friends that morning, and what his mood is about a trade deal with China that afternoon. Trump only sees HK as a negotiating chip in his grand dealmaking attempt
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Politics in the United States will fall into a turkey coma in advance of the Thanskgiving holiday (November 28) and then much longer around Christmas. The legislation could be passed in just hours if necessary, but it will continue to move at its glacial pace
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The US political world is consumed with impeachment drama, and in December this may be compounded by government shutdown drama. However, the Hong Kong issue maintains its strong bipartisan backing and events in HK may push our legislators to act more quickly.
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American politics is highly polarized at the moment, so the fact that the bill was unanimously passed in both houses is a great victory for Hong Kongers. This is a rare issue where all American legislators are speaking with one voice. Whether this would survive a veto is unknown
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Depending on timing, Trump can also ignore the bill until Congress leaves for home (this is called a pocket veto). I'll let someone who knows more about the legislative calendar than me discuss this, but it is a common tactic to quietly get rid of uncomfortable legislation
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Today was still a big deal. The Senate is where laws go to die. The fact that the bill was allowed to reach the Senate floor and passed make it much more likely to survive the next steps.
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