Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
-
Show this thread
-
(You can of course argue that dementia and even debilitiating strokes have not slowed past American presidents down, and history is on your side)
2 replies 3 retweets 39 likesShow this thread -
If we had a more functional democracy, we'd be seeing people born in the 1950's and 60's entering the highest echelons of politics now. But instead, Democratic primary voters will get to choose between three elderly people and the boy mayor of South Bend
1 reply 3 retweets 42 likesShow this thread -
I haven't done the actuarial math, but there's also something like an even probablity that at least one Senator will die before November 2020, just based on the fact that they are a billion years old
2 replies 1 retweet 15 likesShow this thread -
Death and senility are remarkably ageist and that unfortunately makes age a political issue
2 replies 6 retweets 33 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @Pinboard
It also means there's an inevitable shift of voting towards younger viewpoints, by about 2%* since last election. * (Big approximations and bad data — someone probably knows the real answer)
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @jhripley
Minus the younger viewpoints who aged into older viewpoints
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
And there's the rub. People with young viewpoints don't vote until they've changed to older viewpoints.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @emmeyekayeee @Pinboard
I'm not sure this holds universally. For example, flipping from believing in climate change, to not believing in it as you get older. The trend is that older people don't (consider it as big an issue) but that's a viewpoint they started with, not grew into.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
I believe in it, but as I age I will definitely flip to "I don't care as long as my social security checks come"
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.