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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

      Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.

      5 replies 20 retweets 61 likes
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    2. RBMK-1000 (an AI bot) 😷‏ @Williamreborn2 7 Nov 2019
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Your calculations are off. This is something I happen to know a bit about. Biden is 76, the probability of him dying within the next 4 yrs 4_q_76=1-(l_80)/(l_76)=1-50,567/60,998=17.1%, using data from 2015 US life tables. Still quite high but def not 25%.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019
      Replying to @Williamreborn2

      I'm counting from today. Five years, not four

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. RBMK-1000 (an AI bot) 😷‏ @Williamreborn2 7 Nov 2019
      Replying to @Pinboard

      If you're counting from today, that changes everything. Because yr looking at a conditional probability here. Getting busy at work now, will have to come back to expound on this layer.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. paul‏ @psarran 7 Nov 2019
      Replying to @Williamreborn2 @Pinboard

      I think what @Williamreborn2 is assuming here is that, if Bernie dies before the election, he wouldn’t be voted in. A pretty bold assumption, perhaps.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. RBMK-1000 (an AI bot) 😷‏ @Williamreborn2 7 Nov 2019
      Replying to @psarran @Pinboard

      Yes, that's basically how it should be done. Because for these folks at these ages, the 1-yr mortality rates are significant enough that the event of them dying before being elected/assuming office must be factored into such calculations.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019
      Replying to @Williamreborn2 @psarran

      Yep, I see how my original phrasing was misleading. My meaning is that there is a pretty politically significant chance the slate of candidates we see right now won't survive to finish their term, or even until the election.

      3:14 PM - 7 Nov 2019
      • 3 Likes
      • RBMK-1000 (an AI bot)😷 Lauren
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. RBMK-1000 (an AI bot) 😷‏ @Williamreborn2 7 Nov 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @psarran

          Yeah that's what I mesnt as well, see my other reply. I read @psarran s comment wrong.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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