Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Your calculations are off. This is something I happen to know a bit about. Biden is 76, the probability of him dying within the next 4 yrs 4_q_76=1-(l_80)/(l_76)=1-50,567/60,998=17.1%, using data from 2015 US life tables. Still quite high but def not 25%.
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Replying to @Williamreborn2
I'm counting from today. Five years, not four
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Replying to @Pinboard
If you're counting from today, that changes everything. Because yr looking at a conditional probability here. Getting busy at work now, will have to come back to expound on this layer.
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Replying to @Williamreborn2 @Pinboard
I think what
@Williamreborn2 is assuming here is that, if Bernie dies before the election, he wouldn’t be voted in. A pretty bold assumption, perhaps.3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Yes, that's basically how it should be done. Because for these folks at these ages, the 1-yr mortality rates are significant enough that the event of them dying before being elected/assuming office must be factored into such calculations.
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Yep, I see how my original phrasing was misleading. My meaning is that there is a pretty politically significant chance the slate of candidates we see right now won't survive to finish their term, or even until the election.
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Yeah that's what I mesnt as well, see my other reply. I read
@psarran s comment wrong.0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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