Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
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(You can of course argue that dementia and even debilitiating strokes have not slowed past American presidents down, and history is on your side)
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If we had a more functional democracy, we'd be seeing people born in the 1950's and 60's entering the highest echelons of politics now. But instead, Democratic primary voters will get to choose between three elderly people and the boy mayor of South Bend
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I haven't done the actuarial math, but there's also something like an even probablity that at least one Senator will die before November 2020, just based on the fact that they are a billion years old
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Death and senility are remarkably ageist and that unfortunately makes age a political issue
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Okay, I did the actuarial math. 14% chance that all sitting senators will live to November 2020 56% chance that at least one Democrat or independent dies in office 67% chance that at least one Republican dies in office Check my work!https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWVuTPWLXZH3nB5oVMAmbnw6BedmiSz16pRv3drrlX8/edit?usp=sharing …
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Actuarial odds that at least one of (Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg) will be dead by November 2020: 17% Odds that we will all be dead inside by then: 100%
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