Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Your calculations are off. This is something I happen to know a bit about. Biden is 76, the probability of him dying within the next 4 yrs 4_q_76=1-(l_80)/(l_76)=1-50,567/60,998=17.1%, using data from 2015 US life tables. Still quite high but def not 25%.
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Alright, thanks. I revised my maths and it's 20.4%, still not 25%.
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Replying to @mbrubeck @Williamreborn2
I'm calculating five-year survival from today. Are you doing the same, or calculating four-year survival from entering office next year?
2:29 PM - 7 Nov 2019
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