Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
I'm calculating five-year survival from today. Are you doing the same, or calculating four-year survival from entering office next year?
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My calculation was four-year survival from Jan. 2021 to 2025. Yours makes more sense.
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