Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
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If you're counting from today, that changes everything. Because yr looking at a conditional probability here. Getting busy at work now, will have to come back to expound on this layer.
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I think what
@Williamreborn2 is assuming here is that, if Bernie dies before the election, he wouldn’t be voted in. A pretty bold assumption, perhaps. - Show replies
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