Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.
Why is it meaningless? If I lock 1000 octogenarians in the gym for a year, I expect to find some smaller number still alive at the end of it. This seems equivalent to saying there's an X percent chance a person of that age will die in a year
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No, the two statements aren't equivalent. As to why this is, 5 words: the law of large numbers. A simple example, we all know the trusim among gamblers "the house always wins". It does on average, but every so often some lucky bastard breaks the bank. Same idea here.
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