(You can of course argue that dementia and even debilitiating strokes have not slowed past American presidents down, and history is on your side)
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If we had a more functional democracy, we'd be seeing people born in the 1950's and 60's entering the highest echelons of politics now. But instead, Democratic primary voters will get to choose between three elderly people and the boy mayor of South Bend
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I haven't done the actuarial math, but there's also something like an even probablity that at least one Senator will die before November 2020, just based on the fact that they are a billion years old
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Death and senility are remarkably ageist and that unfortunately makes age a political issue
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Okay, I did the actuarial math. 14% chance that all sitting senators will live to November 2020 56% chance that at least one Democrat or independent dies in office 67% chance that at least one Republican dies in office Check my work!https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWVuTPWLXZH3nB5oVMAmbnw6BedmiSz16pRv3drrlX8/edit?usp=sharing …
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Actuarial odds that at least one of (Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg) will be dead by November 2020: 17% Odds that we will all be dead inside by then: 100%
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Your calculations are off. This is something I happen to know a bit about. Biden is 76, the probability of him dying within the next 4 yrs 4_q_76=1-(l_80)/(l_76)=1-50,567/60,998=17.1%, using data from 2015 US life tables. Still quite high but def not 25%.
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Also, mortality probabilities aren't interpreted this way. What we mean when we say someone aged x has a y% prob of dying within a year really is more like, if you randomly take a huge sample of ppl that age (gender matters), you expect y% of them to die before reaching age x+1
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Pretty sure Biden's already well on the road to dementia
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Not an accountant nor statistician, but I believe actuarial tables look at the entire population, or significant portion, all of whom by definition receive avg health care. How relevant is that data to someone w/POTUS level monitoring and prevention?
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