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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

    Actuarial tables show Biden and Sanders have a 5% chance of dying in the next year, and if elected, a 25% chance of dying before their term ends. They also have ~1/4 chance of dementia. This will make the vice presidential pick pretty significant if either is the nominee.

    1:32 PM - 7 Nov 2019
    • 20 Retweets
    • 61 Likes
    • Brett Camper Reigner Kane null Since `17 Mardoch bahvoom Spike McCue Average 2% Objective Ruffian Ursula Rising, astrologer, BLM - Book via my site!
    5 replies 20 retweets 61 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

        (You can of course argue that dementia and even debilitiating strokes have not slowed past American presidents down, and history is on your side)

        2 replies 3 retweets 40 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

        If we had a more functional democracy, we'd be seeing people born in the 1950's and 60's entering the highest echelons of politics now. But instead, Democratic primary voters will get to choose between three elderly people and the boy mayor of South Bend

        1 reply 3 retweets 43 likes
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      4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

        I haven't done the actuarial math, but there's also something like an even probablity that at least one Senator will die before November 2020, just based on the fact that they are a billion years old

        2 replies 1 retweet 15 likes
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      5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

        Death and senility are remarkably ageist and that unfortunately makes age a political issue

        2 replies 6 retweets 33 likes
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      6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

        Okay, I did the actuarial math. 14% chance that all sitting senators will live to November 2020 56% chance that at least one Democrat or independent dies in office 67% chance that at least one Republican dies in office Check my work!https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWVuTPWLXZH3nB5oVMAmbnw6BedmiSz16pRv3drrlX8/edit?usp=sharing …

        3 replies 9 retweets 25 likes
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      7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 Nov 2019

        Actuarial odds that at least one of (Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg) will be dead by November 2020: 17% Odds that we will all be dead inside by then: 100%

        0 replies 16 retweets 75 likes
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      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. RBMK-1000 (an AI bot) 😷‏ @Williamreborn2 7 Nov 2019
        Replying to @Pinboard

        Your calculations are off. This is something I happen to know a bit about. Biden is 76, the probability of him dying within the next 4 yrs 4_q_76=1-(l_80)/(l_76)=1-50,567/60,998=17.1%, using data from 2015 US life tables. Still quite high but def not 25%.

        3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. RBMK-1000 (an AI bot) 😷‏ @Williamreborn2 7 Nov 2019
        Replying to @Williamreborn2 @Pinboard

        Also, mortality probabilities aren't interpreted this way. What we mean when we say someone aged x has a y% prob of dying within a year really is more like, if you randomly take a huge sample of ppl that age (gender matters), you expect y% of them to die before reaching age x+1

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. no cops, no prisons‏ @valorthief 7 Nov 2019
        Replying to @Pinboard

        wondering if politicians, being wealthy, have the same death distribution as the general public

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Martin MacKerel‏ @kemokid 7 Nov 2019
        Replying to @Pinboard

        Pretty sure Biden's already well on the road to dementia

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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