When I left Hong Kong in early October, the police were behaving like an occupation force in their own city. They could only venture out in large groups, showed no respect to residents or restraint in their use of force, and were a welcome sight nowhere.
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Police tactics in HK are best understood as a theatrical performance for authorities in Beijing. The thing we don't know is the quality of information the CCP is receiving about the situation in Hong Kong, and especially whether they believe their own propaganda
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It used to be that the CCP had very good internal reporting. But there is evidence to suggest that is no longer the case, and people at every link of the chain are telling their supervisors what they want to hear. Beijing may genuinely not understand the Hong Kong protests
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If they really think foreign intelligence services are behind the demonstrations, or there is a secret leadership, or that this is somehow due to economic stresses, or that a small group of radicals terrorizes the city (all CCP propaganda lines), then this impasse will worsen
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You would assume just on first principles that China has an excellent intelligence operation in Hong Kong, so the idea that bad information is reaching the central decisionmakers is scary. Literally all you have to do is attend a protest and listen to the chants to outdo Beijing
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I don't know what's scarier, the all-seeing Chinese authoritarian state or the Chinese authoritarian state that only sees what it wants to see
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