My position of High Uncertainty is unchanged
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Well, I bet a bottle of good Vega Sicilia in 2016 and lost already, so ... I never thought Ukraine alone will be the nail in the coffin. I think he'll end up in prison, one way or the other ... won't bet another bottle though
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I’m becoming less convinced the Democrats will actually vote to impeach him at all instead of sticking with Pelosi’s original plan to hold “investigatory” hearings until the election.
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I've moved from wondering if it would matter to believing that it might. The attempt to reframe this as a crime requiring quid pro quo has backfired, and there is a steady drip of revelations it seems. Not good for #45.
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Reminding you gently that most pro-impeachment people can count up to 51 and thus were not of the belief that impeachment was likely to mean conviction.
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I’m in the camp that went from no way he leaves office over it to it’s possible (but very unlikely).
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Same. The numbers and siege mentality of the GOP senators make if very unlikely, but there seems to be a tiny chink in the wall now.
End of conversation
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I will be surprised if we get to a Senate trial before the primaries are underway.
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Twitter-wise? Same as ever. Still holding out hope that reality is edging closer to sanity but I can’t trust twitter to reflect that or not.
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Honestly I think the Kurdish fiasco is more likely to hurt him with his base than Ukraine.
End of conversation
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