Exactly, that was the problem. The headline view everywhere was these 85% (or 99.9%, if you like Princeton) probabilities derived from polling results. It was an inexcusable framing.
-
-
Right. You often roll two heads in a row. That was approximately the chances of Trump winning. People should not have treated "two heads in a row" as an impossibility.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Not really. Events with a 1/4 chance of happening happen all the fucking time. The way you know this is true is nobody will take you up on "do X: you'll have a 75% chance of getting $1000, and a 25% chance of dying."
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.