Agreed but you could see how it would give someone a bit of overconfidence
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Which is entirely consistent with the observed outcome.
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As is any probability < 1.
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I get what you’re saying, but those probabilities(which were probably overconfident) were probably based on the consistency of the lead, not the size
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I think you could make a reasonable argument Clinton was about 60% to 80%. The fact that Trump won does not disprove a number showing him as an underdog
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In fact, I don't think, even with insight, that we could give her anything below 60% with the data available at the time while any implications that the data pointed below 55% is basically trying to pass results as predictions,
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Probability and polling margin aren’t the same thing.
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You're restating my point. This is what people (including journalists) saw when they opened the website of record.
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This just in, a 15% probable outcome still has a 3/20 chance of happening.
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After all, there is only a 14.28% of any give day being a Thursday, but they happen once a week!
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