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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 Jun 2019
      Replying to @mattyglesias

      pic.twitter.com/1WZdjjMyXq

      1:27 PM - 11 Jun 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 12 Likes
      • Max Galkin Not to sound cynical, but ... ʀᴏɴ ʀᴀᴅᴜ Kevin Gray John Gordon Tyler Curtis Karl Clayton Sluis Deirdre Connolly¹ is in the Hot Zone 💉💉🎉😷 David Worsham
      8 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2.  🌲 פק ג'ו מנכן‏ @JonBrouQ22 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @sainttoad @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          Agreed but you could see how it would give someone a bit of overconfidence

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Brian Setzler‏ @BrianSetzler 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          Which is entirely consistent with the observed outcome.

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @BrianSetzler @mattyglesias

          As is any probability < 1.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Sean Domnick‏ @sean_domnick 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          I get what you’re saying, but those probabilities(which were probably overconfident) were probably based on the consistency of the lead, not the size

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Adrian Oaks 🦞‏ @FriendOfTheYeti 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          I think you could make a reasonable argument Clinton was about 60% to 80%. The fact that Trump won does not disprove a number showing him as an underdog

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Dominic‏ @Dominic11B4 12 Jun 2019
          Replying to @FriendOfTheYeti @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          In fact, I don't think, even with insight, that we could give her anything below 60% with the data available at the time while any implications that the data pointed below 55% is basically trying to pass results as predictions,

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. a city in texas‏ @warneagle 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          Probability and polling margin aren’t the same thing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @warneagle @mattyglesias

          You're restating my point. This is what people (including journalists) saw when they opened the website of record.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Colin Ferguson‏ @FearlessSon 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          This just in, a 15% probable outcome still has a 3/20 chance of happening.

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Katia Yaga 🗽‏ @kadska 11 Jun 2019
          Replying to @FearlessSon @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          After all, there is only a 14.28% of any give day being a Thursday, but they happen once a week!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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