The various nerd models give us a 3/4 chance of winning the House. How is such a prediction testable? Isn't it a case of everyone able to declare victory, no matter what happens?
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This is a bad objection. Sure they’re dependent but you can still evaluate how well-calibrated a probabilistic forecast of dependent r.v.’s turned out to be
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In fact part of the point of these predictions is exactly predicting the patterns of dependence / independence between races
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Really don’t understand the shade being thrown on these kind of predictions
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My problem is not the predictions, but the way they couple to journalism and fundraising. I think Nate Silver in particular has done a good job communicating uncertainty this year.
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