The various nerd models give us a 3/4 chance of winning the House. How is such a prediction testable? Isn't it a case of everyone able to declare victory, no matter what happens?
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Replying to @Pinboard
Would you prefer statisticians only chime in if there is a 100% or 0% chance of something happening? Feel free to not look at models if you see no value in understanding odds, but any casual gambler can tell you that its helpful to know if the odds are 5 to 1 or 1 to 5.
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Replying to @OthrVirginiaGuy @Pinboard
You can mathematically prove and empirically test the odds in Roulette and Blackjack - Not so with election forecasts. It’s more like a weather forecast of 40% chance of rain derived from two week’s worth of weather and barometers and thermometers that all disagree.
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Replying to @Tomwonk @OthrVirginiaGuy
Also the clouds watch your forecast and it affects them.
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