The various nerd models give us a 3/4 chance of winning the House. How is such a prediction testable? Isn't it a case of everyone able to declare victory, no matter what happens?
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agreed, but in my eyes that makes it easier to see how the various models performed. if there is a systemic shift of most of the 538 races by 2 pts vs the model, then it will only affect the "outcome" by 20 seats, but the error in the model should be obvious.
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