The various nerd models give us a 3/4 chance of winning the House. How is such a prediction testable? Isn't it a case of everyone able to declare victory, no matter what happens?
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Replying to @Pinboard
Would you prefer statisticians only chime in if there is a 100% or 0% chance of something happening? Feel free to not look at models if you see no value in understanding odds, but any casual gambler can tell you that its helpful to know if the odds are 5 to 1 or 1 to 5.
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Replying to @OthrVirginiaGuy
I'm less critical of the numbers people, and more critical of how that plays into media coverage and fundraising decisions that make some of the models self-fulfilling.
10:43 AM - 5 Nov 2018
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