My extensive fieldwork and data modeling shows the Democrats with a 50.98182% chance of winning the House. The model uncertainty is ± .00032% We'll see tomorrow if my prediction was right.
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Most are comfortably about 80%, and some (including mine) above 90. But the simple answer is to look at multiple realizations of the universe.
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Finally I see the connection with astrophysics!
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It's not testable. You cannot assign probabilities to one-off events. But folks who's paychecks depend on these forecasts will ramble on a lot about "calibration" and "Bayesian stats" until you give up.
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They are highly correlated
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Not even that. This would be true if they managed to decorrelate the errors in the predictions. If, for example, the main source of error were to be an underestimation of the youth turnout, this would not manifest in more random noise but in more wins for D candidates.
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Compare the literally hundreds of elections each of those put out and see where they go it wrong, and compare to the past decade(+) of analysis by some of them to get a good idea?
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