Joking aside, I admire @NateSilver538's attempt to communicate the fact that the range of likely outcomes, given reasonable assumptions, is uncomfortably broad. Polling does not show the blue wave we dreamed of in 2017, though I sure hope we win.
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Having an election outcome that is not foreordained makes for some anxious waiting, but is also good for democracy. A lot of places this year where votes count!
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What's interesting, also, is how the narrative is played. By Nate's own estimate, it's 2% more likely that the Dems win the house than the GOP keeps the senate, and you only seem to hear about the latter.
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Schrödinger’s Congress: We won’t know until the box gets opened on Tuesday.
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P(A) plus P(Not A) = 1.
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