This is because when Dems win the national popular vote for the House by 8 points, the outcome is still in dispute because half the state maps are drawn by computer software to maximize GOP seats in a given state.
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I assume in this case matt is referring to generic ballot polling which has sat in that range for some time. Of course that's not particularly relevant 4 days before Election Day in this system, but it is an effective counter to the implications of the headline
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I believe you are right, but unfortunately we vote in actual specific House races and not on a generic national ballot, and for structural reasons those favor Republicans.
End of conversation
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One of the inputs to those forecasts is fundraising. Look at individual races in the polls-only model and you will see they are all correlated, and all within or close to margin of error.
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Agreed. All points show that we are in the running, but its going to be a hell of a finish and we may lose them all, if Trump can rile up his zombie base sufficiently.
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