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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Nov 2018
      Replying to @mattyglesias

      The polls show several dozen contested races all within the margin of error. Are you seeing different polls? If so, for God's sake share them.

      7:38 PM - 2 Nov 2018
      • 10 Likes
      • little sigh Sergei Jesse Harrison L S Kerry Shortcake Jim Salsman Lbent 黒田 東彦 stan
      4 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        1. Mike Mitchell‏ @MikeMitchNH 2 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          This is because when Dems win the national popular vote for the House by 8 points, the outcome is still in dispute because half the state maps are drawn by computer software to maximize GOP seats in a given state.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Peter Bernstein‏ @plbernstein92 2 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          I assume in this case matt is referring to generic ballot polling which has sat in that range for some time. Of course that's not particularly relevant 4 days before Election Day in this system, but it is an effective counter to the implications of the headline

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Nov 2018
          Replying to @plbernstein92 @mattyglesias

          I believe you are right, but unfortunately we vote in actual specific House races and not on a generic national ballot, and for structural reasons those favor Republicans.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. noelsusman  🌐‏ @noelsusman 2 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Pinboard

          pic.twitter.com/7fW05xnQgG

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        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 2 Nov 2018

          One of the inputs to those forecasts is fundraising. Look at individual races in the polls-only model and you will see they are all correlated, and all within or close to margin of error.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Anne‏ @MtAiryGrl 3 Nov 2018
          Replying to @Pinboard @mattyglesias

          Agreed. All points show that we are in the running, but its going to be a hell of a finish and we may lose them all, if Trump can rile up his zombie base sufficiently.

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